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Historical adaptation pathways (HAP) analyses identify sequences of multi-causal factors that shape climate change adaptation actions. Such analyses can be valuable for understanding why systems respond differently to climate risks, assessing important adaptation drivers and constraints, and identifying potential path dependencies. This paper synthesizes existing (and still emerging) HAP methods in order to present a more standardized and generalized approach to studying historic adaptations. The proposed method combines inductive and deductive approaches and draws on established practices from grounded theory to increase validity, including process tracing, memoing, construct definition, and member checking. This approach is designed to provide historical and contextual information that can be incorporated into a decision model or be shared with stakeholders and community members. In addition, future comparative studies based on this replicable approach could allow for theorization as to the casual mechanisms that engender successful adaptation. The approach is illustrated using a coastal adaptation case study in South Carolina, USA, with one of the main insights being that the island would not exist in its current form without the actions taken by concerned citizens, whose efforts ultimately helped combat the erosion caused (in part) by local jetties. Several areas for methodological improvement and theoretical development are also noted, as the aim of this work is both to enable cross-study comparisons of future HAP research – which can inform adaptation practice – and to provide a method that can be improved upon in future iterations. 

Abstract Avoiding floodplain development is critical for limiting flood damage, yet there is little empirical evidence of how local governments effectively avoid floodplain development. We conduct a mixed-methods study to explain how local floodplain management influences floodplain development in New Jersey, a state with high development pressure and flood risk. We find that 85% of towns developed relatively little in the floodplain from 2001 to 2019, and they achieved this with commonplace land use management tools and modest levels of local government capacity. One hundred twenty-six New Jersey towns put none of their new housing in the floodplain 2001–2019. Our findings run counter to common reports of rampant floodplain development requiring legal innovation and capacity-building campaigns and suggest alternative approaches for promoting floodplain avoidance. We find multiple paths to floodplain avoidance, weak support for previously identified drivers, and strong evidence that the keys to avoidance include having a few high-quality tools that are well-implemented, requiring consistency, coordination, and commitment of local officials. The multiple paths and importance of maximum, rather than average, quality might explain the mixed evidence in prior research connecting floodplain management actions and development outcomes. A lack of attention to towns that limit floodplain development impedes our ability to learn from and disseminate their successes. Contrary to our expectations, we show that floodplain avoidance can be and is achieved through routine municipal practices. Our findings underscore the importance of sustained commitment to development management as a core tool for limiting flood risk.